Recent polling reveals a complex landscape for Democrats as they navigate their path forward following their November defeat to President Trump. While some indicators offer hope, the party faces significant challenges in rebuilding trust and preparing for upcoming electoral battles.
Mixed Results Despite Trump’s Struggles
Trump’s approval rating remains underwater as he reaches his six-month mark in office. Democrats have secured notable victories in several high-profile elections since his inauguration.
However, they have been unable to establish a clear advantage over the GOP as the party works to regroup ahead of next year’s midterm elections.
Data experts suggest that while Democrats’ position has improved since Trump began his second term, substantial work remains to regain public trust and position themselves to retake House control.
The Challenge of Opposition Strategy
“You can’t just be on the attack. You can’t beat something with nothing,” said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. “We have to show and tell what we would do, but I think that we’re on the precipice of a big opportunity, and I hope we take advantage of it.”
Months after suffering a devastating loss—with Trump sweeping all seven battleground states and Republicans gaining control of both congressional chambers—the Democratic Party continues working to rebuild.
Historic Lows in Party Favorability
Halfway through Trump’s first year back in office, many polling indicators paint a concerning picture for Democrats.
Views of the Democratic Party have reached historic lows over recent months. The percentage of registered voters viewing the party favorably has hit some of its lowest levels since Trump’s first presidential term began, according to YouGov’s average.
The party currently sits more than 20 points underwater as of late May.
A CNN poll released Thursday found only 28 percent of Americans view the party favorably—a record low in the outlet’s polling history dating back to 1992. While Republican Party favorability also struggles, it hasn’t reached quite the same depths.
Leadership Crisis and Messaging Struggles
Schumer’s Approval Problems
Criticism has particularly targeted Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), whose favorability rating has remained stuck in the mid-to-upper 20s throughout Trump’s second term. This is according to the Decision Desk HQ polling average, though his net favorability has shown some recent improvement.
Scott Tranter, director of data science for DDHQ, noted that Democrats are still working to develop a coherent message but lack a clear “rallying cry.” Some Democrats have gained attention through arrests during confrontations with Trump administration officials or visits to detention centers like “Alligator Alcatraz” in Florida.
“It’s pretty clear that Schumer is not the guy, just based on his approval rating,” Tranter said. “And one can make the argument that [former House Speaker] Nancy Pelosi’s approval rating was underwater as well, but… Schumer doesn’t seem to have that kind of gravitas that she did.”
No Clear Party Leader
Polling consistently shows a lack of agreement over who leads the Democratic Party following 2024’s defeats.
A CNN poll found that 30 percent of Democrats couldn’t name anyone when asked which leader best reflects the party’s core values. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) led with only 10 percent support, while former Vice President Harris received 9 percent and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) had 8 percent.
An Emerson College Poll revealed Democrats widely split among potential 2028 presidential contenders, with the leading candidate capturing just 16 percent support.
Historical Context and Expectations
Tranter noted this dynamic follows typical patterns after a party’s presidential election loss, citing early 2005 for Democrats after John Kerry’s defeat and 2013 for Republicans following Mitt Romney’s loss.
“Coming out of Kerry, the Democrats were also in the wilderness,” he said. “And so I think that the takeaway is that every time something like this happens, each party goes through its transformation. I think we’re still pretty early on it.”
Signs of Democratic Opportunity
Trump’s Vulnerabilities
Despite winning in November, Trump’s approval rating and favorability have consistently remained underwater—presenting Democrats with potential openings.
Democrats have maintained a lead in DDHQ’s average of the generic congressional ballot since early March, though by only a couple points at most. They led by 1 point as of Monday.
Voter Motivation and Competitive Districts
The same CNN poll showing Democratic Party disapproval found Democrats more motivated to vote in next year’s midterms.
A poll from Republican pollster Fabrizio Ward found Republicans trailing the generic ballot in 28 battleground House districts.
Policy Opportunities
Democrats expressed optimism about Trump’s “big beautiful bill,” which extends Trump’s tax cuts and increases border security funding while cutting Medicaid spending.
Multiple polls show at least a plurality of registered voters or adults oppose the legislation, though many indicate insufficient knowledge about its details.
“Trump and the Republicans are certainly focused on incredibly unpopular policies that are likely to benefit the Democrats that they deserve leading into the midterms,” said Ryan O’Donnell, interim executive director of the progressive polling firm Data for Progress.
“But Democrats also have to show that they’re hearing people’s concerns and actively offering solutions to those concerns to make their lives better and more affordable.”
The Path Forward
Need for Unified Messaging
Lake acknowledged that the lack of clear leadership has positive aspects, as the 2028 Democratic field will likely feature many candidates demonstrating alternatives to Trump. However, she noted that the leadership emergence process has been slower than in previous cycles and unlikely to be “fixed” before the 2026 midterms.
This situation requires unified messaging even without unified leadership, she emphasized.
“They need to have a unified voice and a unified plan, and that plan has to include a proactive, populist economic message about what we’re going to do and who we’re going to fight for,” Lake said.
Learning from 2024 Non-Voters
Lake’s polling firm partnered with the Democratic donor network Way to Win to conduct research on those who voted for President Biden in 2020 but didn’t vote in 2024.
The poll, conducted from late April to early June, found many of these voters disliked both candidates and felt Harris lacked a strong enough economic message to convince them she would lower costs.
Most of these voters indicated they would lean toward voting Democratic if midterms were held today.
Leveraging Voter Regret
Jenifer Fernandez Ancona, co-founder and vice president of Way to Win, said respondents’ indicated regret about not voting—particularly regarding Medicaid cuts and persistent high living costs—creates opportunities for Democrats.
The poll showed the most concern about cuts to programs helping children and Medicaid, concerns that are now materializing following the law’s passage.
“I think you can use that, right? You could leverage that to say, ‘The thing you care about the most is the thing that is actually happening. And so you need to come and be a part of [the] opposition to this,'” Fernandez Ancona said.
Taking the Offensive
Both this poll and other surveys indicate Democrats want their party to go on offense rather than remaining defensive.
“The table has been set,” Fernandez Ancona concluded. “So the question is, will we be able to take advantage of it? Will we really lean in? Will we not shy away from actually going on offense about this bill? It’s all about, can we seize the opportunity?”
Source: Original article by Jared Gans, published on The Hill
