Minnesota has long been a difficult target for Republicans, especially during the Trump era. But with the 2026 governor’s race approaching, some in the party believe they finally have a real chance to win statewide.
That optimism comes with major risks. Party strategists warn that former President Donald Trump and MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell could undermine Republican hopes if their involvement dominates the race.
Walz Seeks a Historic Third Term
Democratic Gov. Tim Walz is running for a third term, something no Minnesota governor has ever achieved. Republicans argue that his long tenure and recent controversies make him vulnerable.
Walz won comfortably in both 2018 and 2022, even as Republicans struggled in other statewide races. Trump lost Minnesota by less than 2 points in 2016, then by wider margins in 2020 and 2024. Despite those losses, Republicans continue to believe the state is within reach.
Trump’s Rhetoric Raises Concerns Inside the GOP
Some Minnesota Republicans worry that Trump’s sharp attacks on Walz, along with disparaging comments about the state’s Somali community, could alienate swing voters.
Michael Brodkorb, a former deputy chair of the Minnesota GOP, said Trump’s tone leaves little room for Republican candidates to offer policy-focused arguments.
“When the president comes in with a flamethrower, there’s no space for the Republican to be thoughtful,” Brodkorb said.
Trump has used recent federal fraud cases involving Somali immigrants to broadly criticize Minnesota’s Somali population. Several GOP insiders fear this approach will backfire in a state with a strong tradition of civic inclusion.
Fraud Investigations Add Pressure on Walz
Republicans see the strongest line of attack in a series of fraud investigations tied to state programs overseen during Walz’s administration.
In 2022, federal prosecutors charged dozens of people in a $250 million child nutrition fraud scheme during the Covid-19 pandemic. The Justice Department described it as the largest Covid-related fraud case in the country.
A state audit later found the Walz administration did not effectively prevent the fraud. Since then, prosecutors have charged multiple defendants in separate cases involving housing, health care, and benefits programs. Investigators are now reviewing billions of dollars in flagged billings across 14 Medicaid-supported programs.
Former Minnesota House Speaker Kurt Daudt said these issues make it easier to argue that it may be time for new leadership.
Lindell’s Possible Run Alarms Strategists
The situation becomes more complicated with Lindell entering the Republican primary. Lindell remains closely associated with false claims that the 2020 presidential election was stolen.
Some Republicans fear that if Lindell wins the nomination, the race will become a referendum on Trump rather than Walz.
“We’d be cooked,” said GOP strategist Dustin Grage. “We would lose pretty badly if Mike Lindell were to get the nomination.”
Trump has praised Lindell publicly, saying at a rally that he “deserves to be the governor of Minnesota.”
Party Leaders Disagree on the Path Forward
House GOP Whip Tom Emmer, the most prominent Minnesota Republican, strongly disagrees with concerns about Trump’s involvement. He said he has spoken with Trump about the race and believes any of the Republican candidates could defeat Walz.
“We should be able to beat Tim Walz with a dog,” Emmer said.
Emmer defended Trump’s blunt rhetoric, arguing it has drawn national attention to Minnesota’s problems that would otherwise go unnoticed.
Democrats Push Back
Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party Chair Richard Carlbom said Walz enters the race focused on everyday issues like jobs and family finances.
He accused Republicans of prioritizing loyalty to Trump over helping working families, arguing voters see a clear contrast between Walz’s record and the GOP agenda.
A National Spotlight on Minnesota
Walz’s profile rose sharply after serving as the Democratic vice presidential nominee alongside Kamala Harris in the last presidential race. Since then, he has become a vocal critic of Trump’s second administration.
That national attention makes Walz both a high-value target and a potentially risky opponent, according to Republican strategists. Trump’s heavy involvement could energize the Republican base, but it could also reinforce Democratic support in a blue-leaning state.
“If Lindell is the candidate, that’s what the election will be about,” Daudt said. “It will be much easier for Walz to make the race about Trump.”
An Uncertain Road to 2026
Some Minnesota Republicans hope a more moderate candidate will emerge from the primary and focus on Walz’s record rather than national political fights.
Emmer, however, said success depends on winning over party activists at the state convention.
“As soon as you are the endorsed Republican candidate and win the primary,” he said, “you are going to win the governor’s race.”
Whether that confidence holds may depend less on Walz’s vulnerabilities and more on how much Trump and his allies shape the contest.
Editor’s note: This report is based on reporting from POLITICO, published December 24, 2025:
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/24/minnesota-elections-2026-tim-walz-mike-lindell-00701462
